Pistons and the gamble of unlocking Cade Cunningham off-ball: What the data says?

A single play in the recent playoff series exposed the full potential the Detroit Pistons are trying to unlock. Cade Cunningham received the ball from a handoff, without a single dribble, and launched a three-pointer from the right corner. It went in. That was one of the plays where, according to postseason statistics, he scored 1.41 points per possession – a number in the 96.6th percentile of the league. But here's the remarkable part: in that same playoff run, when Cunningham initiated with the ball in pick-and-roll situations, he managed just 0.87 points per possession. The gap between these two numbers isn't just a statistical anomaly – it's the blueprint for a tactical revolution in Detroit. The context of the issue stems from a painful reality: the Pistons won just 14 games last season. They were the worst team in the NBA, and part of the reason was that every offensive possession depended on Cunningham with the ball. He was one of the highest usage players in the league, but his efficiency didn't match. The roster around him severely lacked shooting, allowing opponents to easily collapse into the paint. The result was Cunningham facing the most congested defensive situations possible, and his numbers reflected that: 0.87 PPP in pick-and-roll, 0.76 PPP in isolation – both below league average. But this summer, the Pistons' front office made a series of moves showing they understand where the problem lies. They brought in four players who shot over 40 percent from three last season: Malik Beasley, John Collins, Taurean Prince, and Tobias Harris. These aren't stars, but they're shooters that opponents must respect. And more importantly, they create space – something Cunningham has never had in his first three seasons. The key to this plan lies in one name: Ausar Thompson. The 23-year-old is expected to become the secondary ball-handler, allowing Cunningham to move off-ball more often. Thompson has ideal physical tools, elite defensive ability, and most importantly – he can handle the ball. In summer workouts, the two have trained together, and head coach J.B. Bickerstaff has publicly expressed his intention to use Thompson as a playmaker. This is a familiar model: just as the Denver Nuggets use Jamal Murray to unlock Nikola Jokic, the Pistons want Thompson to do the same for Cunningham. The data supports this idea strongly. In the postseason, Cunningham shot 48.8 percent from three on catch-and-shoot situations, and 1.30 PPP on spot-ups – in the 84th percentile. But here's the crucial part: this sample is extremely small. Just 41 catch-and-shoot attempts and 18 shots after one or two dribbles. It's enough to create excitement, but not enough to confirm anything definitively. I've watched Cunningham since his early days in Detroit, and I've realized something: his low on-ball numbers don't fully reflect his true ability. When you play in a lineup where nobody can shoot, every pick-and-roll becomes a battle against three or four defenders. Cunningham isn't bad in on-ball situations – he's simply playing in an environment that couldn't possibly be more inefficient. With the new shooters, even if he still handles the ball as much as before, his numbers could improve significantly without any tactical changes. But there's a risk this analysis doesn't address: opponents can react. When Cunningham runs off screens in pindown situations, smart defenses won't simply leave him alone. They can choose to go under screens, forcing him into difficult mid-range shots, or they can switch, completely disrupting the offensive intent. And if Thompson doesn't become a reliable shooting threat, defenders will abandon him to focus on Cunningham – rendering the entire plan meaningless. The story of Detroit's rise isn't just about adding a few shooters and hoping for magic. It's a structured tactical gamble, based on real data but also on a big belief in Thompson's development. If he stays healthy and progresses as expected, the Pistons could become a formidable play-in team. If not, they'll revert to the old version – a team completely dependent on Cunningham, and we already know where that leads. Data doesn't lie, but the people reading it can. And in this case, the data tells a promising but unverified story. The new season will be the real test. Can Cunningham maintain his 1.41 PPP off-ball efficiency over an 82-game season? Can Thompson become the reliable ball-handler the Pistons need? And most importantly – will opponents find a way to neutralize this plan before it even gets going? I've seen too many young teams destroyed by impatience. But I've also seen perfect-on-paper plans collapse due to unforeseen variables. Detroit is betting on a future where Cunningham doesn't have to carry everything alone. That's a step in the right direction. But in a league where every plan can be broken by an injury or an opponent's tactical adjustment, only time will answer the final question. And that's what makes this season worth watching.